[I updated this to include elements from the final trailer]
The Last of Us is one of my favourite games--I would have said my favourite until I got my hands on Witcher 3 in 2016. It's not typically the kind of game I like--I don't care for short, linear stories; I don't like shooters; and I'm not fond of zombie (or zombie-like) games/stories. However, TLOU is an exception. I didn't hear about the game until after it was released, becoming aware of it when a streamer I used to follow (Day9) played it in the summer of 2013. I watched the entire playthrough and enjoyed it so much I bought the game (echoing the experience of someone at Funhaus). Subsequently, a couple of years later, I became involved with a Twitch channel focused on the game and since then I've streamed it repeatedly. I am, on paper, a devoted fan of the IP, but I haven't written about The Last of Us 2 until now.
I never doubted a sequel was coming--the Grounded video Naughty Dog put out in 2014 made that clear, even though the official announcement was two years later. I was excited by the 2016 'reveal' trailer, no matter how vague it was. That anticipation, however, has waned over time and that's not something unique to me. This isn't to say I'm not excited to play the game, just that my level of excitement has gradually declined.
Before we dig into it, let's go through a brief timeline:
2013
June - TLOU releases
2014
February - "Left Behind" DLC released
March - Amy Hennig and Justin Richmond leave Uncharted 4, with Neil Druckmann and Bruce Straley taking over the game (halting TLOU 2 until that work was finished)
July - TLOU remastered; "Grounded" doc released
2015
Druckmann/Straley attempt (unsuccessfully) to get a TLOU movie made
2016
February - David Ballard is fired (see below)
May - Uncharted 4 releases
December - TLOU 2 announced (teaser trailer)
2017
April - mocap for TLOU 2 begins
August - "Lost Legacy" DLC for Uncharted 4 released (Druckmann does not seem to be involved)
September - Straley leaves ND
October - teaser dropped (Laura Bailey's); Ballard's sexual harassment story comes out via Jason Schreier
2018
June - E3 trailer drops; Jason Schreier reports "Parts of the narrative weren't resonating with players, who said they weren't fond of the characters that the writers hoped would be likable" which required scrapping those elements and reworking ('add some stuff')
2019
April - mocap is completed
September - State of Play trailer; journalists play two sections of the game
October - the February release date (just announced) is pushed to May
2020
March - Schreier exposes crunch at ND; Cooper (former animator) talks about the company's practices
April - May release date abandoned to 'indefinite'; HBO show announced; hackers release 25 minutes of cut scenes on Youtube; the following day Sony provides a new release date (June); hackers drop 95 minutes of footage (including the original 25)
May - hackers are caught by Sony; Muso, a third-party hired to strike down copyright content, starts taking down YT videos just discussing the leaks
I should add, before we go on, that I think Left Behind is a weak addition to the TLOU narrative. Riley is a poorly written character and her nascent romance with Ellie feels forced. That's just my opinion, but it plays into concerns I have below.
This snapshot of Google Trends is indicative. The largest spike represents the 2016 reveal trailer (the leak-spike is almost that high now, see below), the second the E3 trailer, and the third the release date reveal. The 2017 teaser barely registers. What's important is the overall trend itself, which is a gradual decline (I realize there's an upward vector at the end, but that is related to delays, the HBO show, and the leaks)--you can see this in both the Youtube views for the trailers themselves, as well as general coverage (just one example, prolific YTer YongYea videos about the game have deceased significantly pre-leaks over the last eighteen months).
I can't speak for anyone else, but for me what's dampened my enthusiasm is the marketing--a mix of underwhelming and confusing. The gameplay looks excellent--building on what worked so well in TLOU--and so have the visuals/audio--but what made that game magical was the story. On the surface The Last of Us is about parental affection and dealing with loss, but on a deeper level asks the ethical questions about the needs of the many versus the needs of the few (and the need for personal liberty versus the needs of a society). None of that profundity or subtlety has been evident in the marketing for TLOU 2, nor has ND been very clear about what the plot of the game is. Druckmann has talked about hate and revenge, which sounds like every Punisher story ever told, and I find that an odd follow-up to a story about love. The 2017 teaser was a baffling marketing decision that bred confusion (although because of the leaks I now understand its purpose), and the E3 trailer was submerged beneath the avalanche of Cyberpunk 2077. There's also the issue of time--it's been seven long years since the original, which is a huge gap between short games. In that time other IP (like Cyberpunk) have surpassed the excitement for TLOU 2 for me and that would not have been true had it come out earlier (the chart above shows the overall trend for both games). Thus far I've just been talking about anticipation and marketing, so what about the coverage of the game?
What's really odd about Neil is, despite being a vocal progressive (engaged in the culture war, in the US sense of the term), those values don't extend to his workers--as we've learned, ND functions just like every other big gaming conglomerate. Cooper made it clear that their reputation in the industry is so bad that they can't find enough animators to work for them, such that TLOU 2 had to reach out to film animators to complete the project. ND hasn't disputed any of this, so we can imply that both Cooper's comments and Schreier's reporting are accurate. Neil's response to this criticism has been abysmal and there's little suggestion that (unlike CDPR five years ago) anything meaningful is going to change. The inference is that Neil's progressive views are confined to the culture war, rather than embracing the broader progressive spectrum (to make a US political analogy, this would make Neil a Biden rather than Sanders supporter--ergo, business as usual, but be more inclusive).
This is all in the wake of Ballard's sexual harassment complaint. We have to take these accusations with a grain of salt, but it's not a good look for the company and something that runs against what Neil is passionate about (it predates #MeToo, but Neil is the kind of guy you'd expect to believe an accuser until proven otherwise).
Clearly, consumers don't care about any of this, so why is it relevant? Because initially the rumour (via 4chan) was that the leaker was a disgruntled dev. I never bought into this idea, since beyond being career suicide, the usual route for complaints would be journalists or anonymous posts on forums. We now know the leak was from hackers, which makes much more sense.
The authenticity of the leak is not in doubt--ND has confirmed it. There is also no avoiding this material for anyone who is engaged with the IP because the leaks are everywhere (Forbes writer Paul Tassi only managed to go one day before he was spoiled in an unrelated live stream). A game like this works best via the visceral experience of the story and hardcore fans (over time) are going to lose out on that opportunity as spoilers circulate. The reaction from those who have seen the footage or read about it has been broadly negative, although it's unclear if that will impact them purchasing and playing the game. I will add that none of my casual gamer friends have seen these spoilers--in fact, most hadn't heard about the leak--so I believe the impact it less about initial sales and more about the response to the story once they see it (a lot like Death Stranding, see below).
Researching this I become aware of how much ND tests their material--much like Marvel does for the MCU--adjusting story elements based on audience responses (this info is via Schreier). This surprised me given Neil's reputation as an auteur who doesn't care what fans think. Given the leaks, we almost certainly know what wasn't received well, but I'll get into that below. What ND's approach does mean it that we're unlikely to get something that's broadly unpalatable, as however much some might not like Druckmann's politics, they will be presented in the most well-received manner testers can give us. Motion-capture wrapped for the game last April, having begun two years earlier, which means nothing substantial will have changed about the story beyond that point (you can edit down or use different takes, but not add entirely new ones as the game is certainly locked by now).
An adjunct to the above: when journalists were able to playtest part of the game in September, many found the larger section extremely difficult--from comments I read at the time, ND expected players to sneak through the area without much difficulty, but most did not or could not and were forced to fight and died repeatedly because of it. I imagine this area has been tweaked as a result, since those experiences did not follow the intended design (it may have played a role in why ND so quickly revised it's February release date to May).
I was spoiled about the game almost immediately--not all the specifics, but the major elements being reported. I don't trust hearsay, so I sought out the leaks and I have seen all of the videos now. I'll go through all that below in the spoilers section (since I haven't seen it discussed comprehensively anywhere).
RESPONSE TO THE LEAK
SIE [Sony] has identified the primary individuals responsible for the unauthorized release of TLOU2 assets. They are not affiliated with Naughty Dog or SIE. We are unable to comment further because the information is subject to an on-going investigation.I've heard conspiracy theories about this since it came out, but Occam's razor (and the evidence, as YongYea goes over) would tell you it's unfounded. Schreier (the link) has already reported that it was hackers who gained access to ND's servers and that the footage is devs playing an early build (this would refer to the gameplay, which makes up about 60% of the leak). I'm not sure how early the build could be given the dates seen on the footage, although those might represent when the footage was recorded (they range from early March to early April). How this was done can also be found in the link above (PixelButts, who is the source of the latter, makes a few vague comments that could imply the 4chan/Reddit leaks are true, but that can't be trusted since some of the info from them has already been debunked, as we'll get into).
Naughty Dog released a statement the day after the leaks and here's what relevant: "It's disappointing to see the release and sharing of pre-release footage from development. ... No matter what you see and hear, the final experience will be worth it."
This acknowledges that the footage is real and may hint that what's revealed isn't precisely what it seems. Of course, it may simply mean the experience will make those interpretations work--we won't know until the game comes out. ND is in a tough situation--if they put out a statement that X doesn't happen in the game, it means the opposite (Y) does. A linear experience like TLOU 2 is all about binary results, so debunking false interpretations is almost as bad as letting them bubble and boil for the next seven weeks. One potential way around this would be to put out a leak suggesting ambiguity, but I'm not sure if they'll go that route (it will depend, I think, on how powerful the backlash is). After I wrote the above Druckmann essentially lobbed this grenade with "there are a lot of other false rumors out there" (I'll delve into this below).
In addition to ND's statement, Sony came out with a new release date for Last of Us 2, shifting it from May 29th to June 19th (roughly three weeks). Is this long enough for physical sales? If it's not, then the delay makes no sense whatsoever. It also means there's no immediate relief from having the leaks being disseminated, dissected, and discussed. Almost everyone who follows the game has already been directly or indirectly spoiled from what I can tell (despite Sony's increasingly panicked efforts to remove the footage).
I think the game will review well--the leaks change nothing about that and it will get consideration as game of the year (the backlash virtually assures both results). The concern, however, is the general audience--The Last of Us had broad appeal (across the political spectrum), so it's not a game that can afford to be niche or controversial to enjoy similar success. The fear for Sony is that the game will land the same way Death Stranding did--a big opening, but with mixed reaction from fans which resulted in it failing to meet sales targets (tangentially this reminds me of a pet peeve: it's not the raw sales numbers that matter, but the financial expectations of the company that put out the product).
SPOILERS
Initially, less than 25 minutes of cut scenes/gameplay were released. The Last of Us has 93:00 of cut scenes and it's expected that The Last of Us 2 has far more (to fit a longer game, 20-30 hours), so this was a small (if significant) percentage of that (probably less than 20% of the game). Afterwards, just before the hackers were caught, ninety-five minutes of footage was leaked (including the original footage). Of this, nearly forty minutes is either cut scenes or dialogue-heavy moments outside of combat (only one small partial cut scene is absent from the original dump). The rest of the footage is largely gameplay (with little to no meaningful dialogue).
The Footage
The big file: what's marked in green is completely new; what's extended is in blue; what has no colour is unchanged from the initial batch of leaks; at the bottom I included the only videos not included in this and they are marked in red; it's listed in order of how they appear in the video (bits that were included in the final trailer are marked with a *):
*(5:30) this includes the largest original leak chunk; Joel wants to know if Dina and Jesse are dating, and then thinks Jesse is into Ellie; Ellie confronts him about his lie at the end of TLOU, but she backs down from it
(2:00) Dina stitching up Ellie, who then goes through polariods looking for Abby; they reference Nora; Ellie wants to follow-up immediately (dropping Tommy's name), while Dina wants her to wait for Jesse to get up, but helps her leave anyway (it's unclear if she goes with her or not)
(2:30) Ellie and Dina debating, with the latter saying Ellie doesn't owe Tommy anything and pulls the 'prove you love me' card by asking her to stay (drops that Jesse and Joel are dead), says they have a family (the context of this is vague--they are a family, part of a family, having a family?), Ellie leaves after Dina says "I'm not going to do this again" and it seems to transition over to Abby and Lev who are following a lead to the Fireflys
(0:20) Ellie and Dina love scene, interrupted by Jesse (this is included in a larger video below)
(2:00) menu screen followed by a long loading screen
(7:00) A slightly longer version of Ellie and Dina on horseback looking for Joel, having just run into the WLF (Abby's group) who they clearly believe have captured Joel--the bulk of this has no dialogue, just the player riding around
(0:30) (in Spanish) Ellie discovers Joel being held captive (the prelude to the death scene)
(0:15) Jesse and Ellie attacked by a clicker while driving
(0:30) Different part of the winter scene of Ellie and Dina needing horses--they say that Tommy took one and Maria now has the stables locked down, making a trip to Seattle harder (Ellie says Dina can change her mind about going, but she doesn't)
(0:30) Winter Ellie/Dina scene examining a room
(0:10) Flashback scene of Joel and Ellie (unclear where this is, possibly a museum)
(1:30) (German) Ellie/Abby fight scene; Ellie claims Dina is pregnant, which doesn't persuade Abby, but does persuade Lev
(1:00) A few moments of Ellie/Dina gameplay before the game is paused and the camera pushed through the scene showing bits of dev information
(0:15) Ellie in a level-builder with the wireframes showing
(8:00) Paused scene of Ellie driving a boat (90% of this is going through the dev menus)--Ellie says nothing while in the boat as she makes her way to enemies
(0:10) Winter Ellie/Dina on horseback (reminds me of a snippet of footage from one of the trailers and this may be the first area journalists played in September)
(0:05) Ellie threatening a dying man to find out where 'she' (Abby or Dina, presumably) is
(1:30) Ellie being manipulated to float up the map to a different part of the building she's in; the person than restarts the checkpoint, which goes back to Ellie/Dina on horseback approaching the building--Ellie is once again floated up to the next floor (rather than taking the ramp)--no dialogue
(5:30) (Spanish) Ellie fighting stalkers--eventually getting pushed into the water and swimming--the current taking her into the sewers for more combat--she says very little, but she does reference Seattle as her location--she escapes into the city proper
(16:30) Ellie/Dina fighting infected inside a building; the player restarts the checkpoint almost immediately and rather than fight they escape from them; the player then pauses the screen for at least a minute before resuming and the characters discuss shamblers (likely the first time we encounter them in the game); they then explore more (Ellie finds a combination door and actually has to impute it as its a partial puzzle)--the footage drags on interminably before we get more fighting infected (notably Dina does not get a plus sign as Ellie races around far from her); they escape the area
(2:30) Dina/Ellie debate scene repeated
(4:00) Abby/Ellie fight from Abby's point of view (the player does it three times and fails all of them)
(1:30) Ellie/Dina gameplay (fighting the WLF); the player puts on 'invisible' mode and does the same kill three times)
(1:30) Joel's death scene from Abby's perspective (this time without any ambiguity); reveals that Jordan is a WLF member
(2:00) Opening of Abby's Day One scene; she talks to Manny and gazes at a workout area
(0:05) Abby making out with Manny (it seems connected to the scene above)
(0:10) What looks like an MP/Factions scene (I'm very suspicious about this being real)
*(1:30) Joel's death scene from Ellie's point of view
(2:00) Abby and Owen with Abby shooting targets with her bow*(14:30) Opening of the game (timestamp on the footage is April 4th, almost certainly corresponding to 'Flashback Guitar," but is not necessarily the entire chapter); Joel talks to Tommy about what he did at the end of TLOU, then they ride back to Jackson for the credit sequence; Tommy promises he'll take Joel's secret to the grave (he would have done the same thing); Ellie drawing while listening to music; Joel talks to her and plays the guitar and sings for her (which is briefly a mini-game) and then gives her the guitar and tells her a bad joke
(2:00) Extended Dina/Ellie in bed together talking about scars (Ellie reveals her immunity)--this is the full version of the smaller scene above--Jesse complains that Dina is supposed to be on patrol and reveals that Tommy and Joel didn't show-up
(1:00) Abby gameplay fighting humans
(6:00) Ellie/Dina fighting infected (a lot of pauses with dev info showing); uses the Ellie floating glitch; continually shoots legs off infected, who continue to crawl and try to attack
(1:00) Ellie exploring and transitioning into playing guitar
(0:15) Tommy talking to Ellie about needing help
The person (presumably one of the hackers) who put this together simply grabbed all the footage they could find and merged it willy nilly, as there's nothing chronological about this.
General Observations
Let's quickly go over all the named TLOU characters (who did and didn't survive):
Alive: Joel, Ellie, Tommy, Maria, Bill, Ish (Sewers), Susan (Sewers)
Dead: Jimmy (intro), Sarah, Winston (Left Behind), Robert (Boston), Tess, Frank (Lincoln), Kyle (Sewers), Henry, Sam, James (Winter), David, Ethan (Firefly Lab)
Unknown: Louis (intro), Mark (Boston), Maryanne (Boston), Malick (Boston), Terrence (Boston), Danny (Sewers), Earl (Dam), Houser (Dam), Maria's father (Dam)
The first four survivors are all confirmed for TLOU 2 (Maria in the leaks, although it was assumed beforehand and she's referenced, not seen). There's no overt signs of fan favourites Bill or Ish, although that doesn't mean they won't appear. Druckmann showed a strong sentimental streak in Uncharted 4, but during TLOU 2's development he's emphasized a much more aggressive approach (he calls himself an 'abuser of characters' on his Twitter profile, which I find ridiculous--it's the kind of thing a 15-year old thinks is edgy)--will we get the fan service? I think we will, just not to what extent (given how far away, geographically, Bill etc are from where the game takes place, seeing them is unlikely).
My theory (as per the 2018 E3 trailer), was that Dina (the love interest) would be used as the motivator for Ellie's campaign of revenge, with Joel dying in the process (that would be the consequence of her rage). I'd rejected the idea of Joel serving as that motivator because it would mimic The Last of Us too closely (instead of the father losing the daughter, it's the daughter losing the father). The leaks, however, make it clear that Neil is using the latter. Perhaps this is why Troy Baker said "I don’t know whether people are going to like it or they’re going to hate it, but they definitely will NOT be ambivalent about it." Troy is understandably concerned about fan reactions, as he's said things like they need to keep 'an open mind.' Unfortunately for Troy, I think many minds have been closed already (although I don't think the reaction would be very different without the leak).
Confirmed
The 4chan chapter summary pulled from the leak:
- Jackson (7 parts; Flashback Guitar; Patrol Jackson; Tracking; Patrol; Tracking Horde; Patrol Chalet; Patrol Departure)
- Ellie Day One (5 parts; Seattle Arrival; Jordan Escape; Watchtower; Theater; Flashback Museum)
- Ellie Day Two (4 parts; Rescue Jesse; Flashback Patrol; Find Nora; Flashback Ultimatum)
- Ellie Day Three (3 parts; Flooded City; Find Aquarium; Theater Ambush)
- Abby Day One (3 parts; Flashback Dad; Forward Base; Saving Kids)
- Abby Day Two (2 parts; Medicine; Amputation)
- Abby Day Three (3 parts; Save Lev; Abby Fights Militia; Abby Fights Ellie)
- The Farm (1 part)
- End (2 parts; Santa Barbara; Epilogue)
The game will be at least partially split between Ellie's perspective and that of a new character (the one shown in the 2017 teaser), Abby, played by Laura Bailey (whom Neil is clearly a fan of, as she survived the controversial reception she received in Uncharted 4--white-washing the VO for a POC).
There are five flashbacks, which seems like a lot (my instinct says this is a way to include more Joel in the narrative). It's impossible to know whose perspective the final three chapters are from. At first I thought all the "Ellie Day X" segments were purely hers, but knowing that Jordan is with the WLF and his segment is called 'escape' it's possible there's a rotation with Abby. If my initial surmise is correct, then Ellie is the main character in 19 of 26 chapters until we get to the end, but we do have to keep open the possibility the balance isn't that lopsided. I'm not a fan of Abby's character design, but that doesn't mean she won't be interesting (nor has her design changed since it was revealed in 2017, unlike Ellie's, whose character model has shifted for whatever reason--we kiss her red hair goodbye, alas).
We know that Abby is part of the WLF, although it's unclear what that group is precisely. Via the leaks Abby is looking for the Fireflies, but it's not clear why she isn't part of that group already given her rumoured origin.
We've known since the 2018 E3 trailer that Ellie and Dina become a couple and this is confirmed--what's added is that at some point the pair are looking for Joel (we knew from released gameplay footage that Ellie runs into Joel, but not that she and Dina were specifically looking for him--I suspect that demo footage is fake, because its implied when she finds Joel that he was looking to help her out and there's no direct evidence of that). It was a smart marketing decision to let fans know about that romance early, so that the idea could be digested long before the game's release, although from what I can tell its been met with a collective shrug of the shoulders by the fanbase.
I would have told you four years ago that the most obvious thing to do with Joel in this narrative was to kill him off (an idea not unique to me). He's already gone through his heroes journey--there's nothing left for him to prove, no place left for him to evolve. It's the obvious choice (if not the only one). Killing him accomplishes a couple of things for the story: provides Ellie with her revenge motivation and draws a parallel between Abby's back story--Joel killed her dad (rumoured, see below), so she's returned the favour to Ellie. It's a bit obvious, but Neil leans heavily on clear parallels (evident in TLOU). Having seen the death scene, neither it or Abby are going to be received well--that doesn't mean it can't work, but it's a very difficult sell (I don't think a solitary flashback to her father is going to do it). I dislike the death scene quite a bit and, by extension, the perpetrator. I expect that's the desired emotion, but I'm unsure how the game can persuade you to wear Abby's skin and sympathize with her after that. The problem with it is that the parallels don't really work--what Joel did to her father was out of love to save his child, while what Abby does is out of hate as an adult--you can empathize with Joel (even if you disagree with him), but barring more context I can't empathize with Abby. Abby isn't saving anyone, she's simply trying to right a wrong, which is much weaker motivation. On a meta level, as well, killing Joel is killing the player--they were Joel for an entire game--so in a way Abby is killing (and judging) the player who was forced into that position. it's an extremely odd decision (either brilliant or terrible--there's no halfway with it).
From the Schreier story we know that elements that were tested in 2018 did not go over well. To repeat the quote, "Parts of the narrative weren't resonating with players, who said they weren't fond of the characters that the writers hoped would be likable," which required scrapping those elements and reworking ('add some stuff'). This is almost certainly in regards to Abby (and, perhaps, her faction). I don't know that you can actually make her work. It's an ambitious thing to try and presumably what they changed tested better, but it's going to be interesting to see if they can actually climb that mountain.
A final note: one welcome change to the game is the option to not just restart from a checkpoint, but to restart an encounter instead. This is a wonderful quality of life decision as in various chapters going all the way back to the checkpoint in TLOU involves redoing a bunch of gameplay unattached to whatever made you restart in the first place.
Rumoured
Abby is the daughter of the doctor Joel kills at the end of The Last of Us. This is via an unverified Reddit post from almost a month ago. It's possible, but unrelated to anything that I've found. Part of the problem with the Reddit post is it says Jesse (Dina's ex) survives the game, whereas reported dialogue suggests he's dead (just like Joel). Of course, Dina may simply think he's dead (we have a Rescue Jesse mission, after all), but if her comment is right than the Reddit leaker is incorrect. On the other hand, on a story level there's not much point in a rescue mission failing (having Ellie fail to rescue someone twice seems redundant).
Dina is pregnant with Jesse's baby. This comes from a scene where Ellie begs for Dina's life saying she's pregnant. Ellie could be lying--the only other evidence is when Dina talks about being a family, but that phrasing isn't clear about what she means. This idea is possible, but we never see Dina's character model obviously pregnant, which would clinch the idea. On a story level having a character pregnant who survives would be a nod to a new beginning, so thematically it could make sense for a happy ending, but I think we have to take it with a grain of salt for now.
Journalist Richard Lewis (link below) mentioned a few other things that come from 4chan that aren't yet verified:
Ellie/Joel have been estranged for a few years, but we don't know why
The cult (Seraphim) hates gay people
The cult are all immune to the disease due to a ritual they perform
Rumoured but Debunked
Abby is a transgendered character (which comes from another 4chan post). I frankly couldn't care less if she is, but the leaks debunk this. It's also said that she's a Mary Sue in terms of her abilities, but, again, this comes from 4chan (my guess is they are upset that she can physically fight people, unlike Ellie, but her character model and background are clearly intended to echo an MMA fighter and it doesn't bother me--it's a visceral way to contrast the two).
People have reported Abby kills Ellie and there is no clear evidence of this. Abby has her at her mercy and let's her go, and then the two fight later on, but to no recorded result (which itself is extremely suspicious--if she was going to die, the hackers would have leaked it, just like the Joel death scene). Tangentially one of these scenes brings up a conundrum: I've seen two versions of the fight with Dina/Ellie. In just one video (on someone's phone) it appears as though Dina dies. I think the latter, if it hasn't been altered by someone, is one of those occasions where the player didn't mash the button correctly and that's the result (the kind of thing you see before the scene reboots in TLOU). What's pushed this idea forward is the aforementioned Reddit post which claims Ellie dies at the end (as a consequence of her body count), which I think I've already made clear we have to take with a grain of salt.
Richard Lewis: believes that the the cult attacks Jackson and that results in Jesse's death, so they chase after them and then run into Joel, who agrees to help them, and through this he's captured by Abby and killed. The problem with this theory is it flies in the face of the Rescue Jesse chapter in Seattle and in Ellie and Dina's seemingly idyllic search for Joel initially. Lewis isn't the only one whose assumptions have leaned heavily on Resetera's compilation without thoroughly combing through the footage themselves.
Druckmann's Comment
I mentioned above Neil's quote, "there are a lot of other false rumors out there." I don't think he's lying or trying to save face, but what could he be referencing? Here are the most common complaints:
1) Joel dies (via Abby) and how he dies is done terribly
2) Ellie dies (via Abby)
3) We play as Abby for half the game
4) Dina is pregnant
5) The game ends on a hopeless note as Abby or Ellie realize the cycle of revenge will never end
6) Abby/Dina are poorly written characters meant to shove an agenda down people's throats
7) The villains are all stand-ins for conservatives/Christians
These sum up the main complaints. I don't think Neil would bother addressing #6-#7, so I think the first five are what he's referring too. Naturally he didn't say it was all wrong (even if it was, he shouldn't), but clearly some of it is. To me the most obvious areas would be #5 (I don't think Neil is a pessimist); I think #2-#3 are false and I'm dubious of #4 (although it frankly seems irrelevant).
The Final Trailer
My raw thoughts on it. The emphasis is Ellie's drive for revenge (which fits what the story is about), but it steers clear of showing Abby or emphasizing/explaining Ellie's enemies. A few specific points:
The burning town briefly seen: could this be Jackson?
The conversation with Tommy seems connected to the leaked 0:15 conversation with him that didn't get lumped into the 95-minute video
I think we see WLF-member Jordan threatening Ellie with a knife
Jesse rejects Ellie's mission in what looks like Seattle, saying the price is too high
What looks like the beginning of the Abby/Ellie fight from Ellie's perspective
Dina is almost completely absent from the trailer (just one brief bedroom scene)
Even more than all the other trailers, the emphasis is on Ellie as a character and her actions, something that doesn't fit the idea of playing half the game as Abby (the more time spent with Abby, the less time being immersed in Ellie's choices). The Tommy discussion implies he's hesitant in joining her revenge plan because it puts Jackson at risk (presumably why we've seen no footage of him fighting).
The Shape of the Story
The Last of Us is not a complex story--it has interesting underlying themes and questions, but it's light on dialogue and the narrative itself is deceptively simple. This also applies to Uncharted 4, so I don't think Neil wants complex narratives in his games (linear stories prevent interlace and, in this case, there are no decisions--we are on Neil's journey). Because of that, the leaks and chapter summaries give us some idea of what TLOU 2 is about.
Broadly, I think the game opens up with Ellie's 'normal' existence. A kind of idyllic post-apocalyptic paradise whose primary concerns are dealing with the infected and Ellie's romance (this covers, I believe, the entirety of the Jackson chapter except for the very last part, where the decision to go to Seattle is made). The stability of that opener is, I think, revealed by the many 'patrol' chapters in Jackson--all of them imply not leaving the area, which suggests a lack of dramatic push for Ellie to leave. The primary enemies here will be infected, with few (if any) human antagonists (the 'Horde' is probably the major interaction that 'ends' the main infected phase)--if we see humans I'd guess they'd be the Seraphim or bandits/hunters. From there we hit the trip to Seattle (Ellie Day One), which seems to involve Tommy. I don't think Joel is in Jackson in the present--I have a feeling that Ellie asks him to leave once his lie is exposed and, out of respect for her, he does (there's no proof of this in the footage, it's something from 4chan that I think matches his absence in footage). I think the long scene of he and Ellie talking and patrolling is from the Flashback Patrol in Seattle and that the reason we have so many flashbacks in general is to push Joel into a narrative where he'd otherwise be absent. There are good story reasons to do this: if Ellie and Joel remain on good terms, then he assumes a fatherly role and Ellie loses some of her agency (the absent father is also a very strong, if overused, character trope, cf). This means Ellie makes all her own decisions--she is responsible for her choices uncoloured by Joel's views.
At first I thought the trip to Seattle was either to find or rescue Joel (who is presumably taken by the WLF). It is, however, possible that the trip is necessitated by Jesse being taken captive and, for this reason, Ellie needs Joel's help to find him (he might be grabbed by the WLF or the Seraphim). If the second surmise is true then Joel is captured in this process and dies. Going back to the first possibility, another option would be that Joel is killed in the Jackson narrative and that the entirety of Seattle is Ellie's pursuit of revenge, which ends in the Theater Ambush after which we transition to Abby. I don't think this would work, narratively, but it's another plausible approach (and would match the general thrust of TLOU, where Ellie as a narrative device only appears at the end of two chapters/five sections). Having seen the final trailer, I do think Joel dies earlier in the story, because there's no other trigger being offered for Ellie's revenge narrative.
It's less clear when the Abby narrative begins (as in, our experience as Abby). The earliest could be Jordan Escape (although he might be escaping from Ellie who pursues him), since we know he's a member of the WLF, but I'm a bit dubious of that (given the trailer I'm 99% certain that's from Ellie's perspective). Nora is also a WLF member, but I think it's Ellie who is finding her (perhaps via the polaroid scene in the leaks). I'm no longer entirely certain what triggers the transition to Abby (it must, I think, occur before the final confrontation with Ellie), but I still think we begin with a flashback of Joel killing her father. My guess is Abby will be as 'good' as she possibly be, to help wash away how much players will dislike what she did, but unfortunately I don't think that will work.
Thematically I think Abby and Lev are meant to be echo Joel and Ellie from TLOU, which would be clever if Neil hadn't already used this angle with Henry and Sam for the exact same reason in TLOU (in fact, most of the characters in that game are intended to be reflections of who Joel could become). How that transition from Ellie works is going to be interesting since, as someone set-up as an antagonist, players might never give the relationship a chance. It's a big risk.
In terms of the finale, Neil has two options: either one of Ellie/Abby 'wins,' but that win is bittersweet and the victor loses everything that's important to them because of it (again, every Punisher story, and in that case I believe Ellie is the victor), or neither wins and they give up their struggle having learned how hollow revenge truly is (which starts to push into Tolkien territory, someone who truly abhorred violence). I think the second is more likely for Neil, given his overall sentimental nature--I think ultimately he wants a redemptive story for both played characters. In that sense, even though I think all three final chapters (or at least two) will be from Ellie's perspective, I believe both will survive (Dina is also, I believe, safe).
The leaks leave out many other elements of the game we know are included from various official comments as well as trailers. We learn nothing about the Seraphim from the leaks. I suspect they will be like the infected, obstacles to overcome rather than actual rounded characters (cf the hunters in Pittsburgh or David's cannibals from TLOU).
Reactions
There are people who will love the game no matter what was leaked, just as there are people who will hate it in the same axiomatic fashion. I don't have a devotion to any particular publisher--they are as good as their last game--so I was curious about general reactions. I sought out people who were interested in the game and not overtly on either side of the fanatical equation:
Angry Joe hates the decision to spend half the game as Abby, Joel's killer (it's clear he's only seen a one or two video fragments and is relying on the Resetera breakdown); he wouldn't buy the game if he didn't have to review it
LegacyKillaHD was spoiled on the exact same unrelated stream that Paul Tassi was watching, but doesn't express any feelings about the reveals either way
James Bray read the spoilers and hated everything he saw, but he still wants to play it
Bellular News watched the footage as part of his review of the news, didn't like the writing or the decisions and it has lessened his excitement
Richard Lewis has seen the spoilers and hates the story (he thinks they're trying to subvert expectations in a non-interesting way)
Tyrone Magnus read about the leaks and said if they are true he hates what's been done
Upper Echelon Gamers is concerned by what he's heard, but believes everyone should wait and see it in context before judging (his concern about the narrative has only increased since)
Luke Stephens was spoiled via email and admitted it deflated his excitement
Anthony Caliber was spoiled via DMs, but remains optimistic that even if the story isn't up to par, the gameplay and visuals will be fantastic
YongYea hasn't seen any of the footage (he's the only person I can find who hasn't), but is disconcerted by how negative the feedback about the reveals has been
Funhaus drew an interesting distinction to the plot being leaked as cut scenes rather than text--they think the latter is far more damaging because these things can be seen as opposed to (abstractly) read (comparing it, oddly enough, to Harry Potter leaks)
All the negative response are expressly or implied to be about the character's deaths (Joel and Ellie specifically). The objections aren't to the deaths per se, but how they are come about and are portrayed.
What about my own reaction? My concern (long before the leaks) was about the reliance on romance between Dina and Ellie--I rarely like how romance is written and this relationship has to work for the story to function on an emotional level (something impossible to judge from the various detached scenes--I had the same indifferent reaction to the trailer that featured them). If I can't buy their relationship (as I did not for Ellie and Riley in Left Behind), it's going to put a major dent in what the game is trying to do. Beyond that, Abby is going to have to be a fantastic character--a bar so high it's a credit to Neil if he can pull it off (if he can't it's likely the death of TLOU as a franchise). Very little Abby material was shown--in the one that's meant to be cute (with Owen) she comes off as annoying (reminding me of Riley's behaviour during the water gun fight with Ellie), but that's just one scene.
The scene where Joel dies is, without question, the most emotional of those leaked and it does not sit well with me. I've tried to think of a parallel in media, but nothing comes to mind. Part of the problem with his death is both Abby's motivation (bog-standard revenge), and Joel seemingly dying for nothing--his death is robbed of meaning. Joel becomes a plot device--he gets fridged--and it will be interesting to see if there's any context that can save it from being anything other than a terrible writing failure. I'd like to hope it can be, but for now it's hard to imagine how.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
